3-Year Financial Forecast
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🥖 Smith Bakery (example)
Total 3-year revenue (excl. VAT)
€1,045,422
Year 3: €412,244
Total 3-year costs
€929,900
88.9% of revenue
Cumulative net income
€90,479
Net margin Y3: 14.1%
Cash at end of year 3
€156,352
Min cash: €26,000
Break-even (month)
Month 6
Reaching profitability
DSCR — Repayment capacity
✓ Good
8.38
Repayment capacity above the bank threshold (≥ 1.2).
Debt ratio
✓ Good
0.34
Balanced structure: debt lower than equity.
Working capital in days of revenue
✓ Good
-16 days
Working capital under control: the operating cycle funds the business.
Net margin (year 3)
✓ Good
14.1%
Profitability in line with bank expectations (≥ 5%).
📈 Revenue vs costs (36 months)
Revenue €1.0M · Costs €930k
💵 Monthly cash
Min €26k · End Y3 €156k
| Indicator | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | 3-year total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue excl. VAT | €288,383 | €344,795 | €412,244 | €1,045,422 |
| Operating costs | -€282,753 | -€308,474 | -€338,673 | -€929,900 |
| EBITDA | €15,230 | €45,921 | €83,171 | €144,322 |
| Operating income | €5,630 | €36,321 | €73,571 | €115,522 |
| Financial expenses | -€2,126 | -€1,873 | -€1,611 | -€5,610 |
| Corporate tax | -€526 | -€5,167 | -€13,740 | -€19,433 |
| NET INCOME | €2,978 | €29,281 | €58,220 | €90,479 |
| EBITDA margin | 5.3% | 13.3% | 20.2% | — |
| Net margin | 1% | 8.5% | 14.1% | — |
| Item | Jan Y1 | Feb Y1 | Mar Y1 | Apr Y1 | May Y1 | Jun Y1 | Jul Y1 | Aug Y1 | Sep Y1 | Oct Y1 | Nov Y1 | Dec Y1 | Jan Y2 | Feb Y2 | Mar Y2 | Apr Y2 | May Y2 | Jun Y2 | Jul Y2 | Aug Y2 | Sep Y2 | Oct Y2 | Nov Y2 | Dec Y2 | Jan Y3 | Feb Y3 | Mar Y3 | Apr Y3 | May Y3 | Jun Y3 | Jul Y3 | Aug Y3 | Sep Y3 | Oct Y3 | Nov Y3 | Dec Y3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue excl. VAT | €18,700 | €20,097 | €21,532 | €21,855 | €23,350 | €23,700 | €22,853 | €20,754 | €24,783 | €26,412 | €29,362 | €34,985 | €22,358 | €24,028 | €25,744 | €26,130 | €27,918 | €28,336 | €27,323 | €24,814 | €29,631 | €31,579 | €35,105 | €41,829 | €26,732 | €28,729 | €30,780 | €31,241 | €33,379 | €33,880 | €32,668 | €29,668 | €35,427 | €37,756 | €41,973 | €50,011 |
| Raw materials | -€7,106 | -€7,637 | -€8,182 | -€8,305 | -€8,873 | -€9,006 | -€8,684 | -€7,887 | -€9,417 | -€10,037 | -€11,157 | -€13,294 | -€8,496 | -€9,131 | -€9,783 | -€9,929 | -€10,609 | -€10,768 | -€10,383 | -€9,429 | -€11,260 | -€12,000 | -€13,340 | -€15,895 | -€10,158 | -€10,917 | -€11,696 | -€11,872 | -€12,684 | -€12,874 | -€12,414 | -€11,274 | -€13,462 | -€14,347 | -€15,950 | -€19,004 |
| Commissions | -€374 | -€402 | -€431 | -€437 | -€467 | -€474 | -€457 | -€415 | -€496 | -€528 | -€587 | -€700 | -€447 | -€481 | -€515 | -€523 | -€558 | -€567 | -€546 | -€496 | -€593 | -€632 | -€702 | -€837 | -€535 | -€575 | -€616 | -€625 | -€668 | -€678 | -€653 | -€593 | -€709 | -€755 | -€839 | -€1,000 |
| Total variable costs | -€7,480 | -€8,039 | -€8,613 | -€8,742 | -€9,340 | -€9,480 | -€9,141 | -€8,302 | -€9,913 | -€10,565 | -€11,745 | -€13,994 | -€8,943 | -€9,611 | -€10,297 | -€10,452 | -€11,167 | -€11,335 | -€10,929 | -€9,926 | -€11,852 | -€12,632 | -€14,042 | -€16,732 | -€10,693 | -€11,491 | -€12,312 | -€12,497 | -€13,352 | -€13,552 | -€13,067 | -€11,867 | -€14,171 | -€15,103 | -€16,789 | -€20,005 |
| Rent | -€2,200 | -€2,200 | -€2,200 | -€2,200 | -€2,200 | -€2,200 | -€2,200 | -€2,200 | -€2,200 | -€2,200 | -€2,200 | -€2,200 | -€2,244 | -€2,244 | -€2,244 | -€2,244 | -€2,244 | -€2,244 | -€2,244 | -€2,244 | -€2,244 | -€2,244 | -€2,244 | -€2,244 | -€2,289 | -€2,289 | -€2,289 | -€2,289 | -€2,289 | -€2,289 | -€2,289 | -€2,289 | -€2,289 | -€2,289 | -€2,289 | -€2,289 |
| Salaries | -€9,500 | -€9,500 | -€9,500 | -€9,500 | -€9,500 | -€9,500 | -€9,500 | -€9,500 | -€9,500 | -€9,500 | -€9,500 | -€9,500 | -€9,690 | -€9,690 | -€9,690 | -€9,690 | -€9,690 | -€9,690 | -€9,690 | -€9,690 | -€9,690 | -€9,690 | -€9,690 | -€9,690 | -€9,884 | -€9,884 | -€9,884 | -€9,884 | -€9,884 | -€9,884 | -€9,884 | -€9,884 | -€9,884 | -€9,884 | -€9,884 | -€9,884 |
| Insurance | -€350 | -€350 | -€350 | -€350 | -€350 | -€350 | -€350 | -€350 | -€350 | -€350 | -€350 | -€350 | -€357 | -€357 | -€357 | -€357 | -€357 | -€357 | -€357 | -€357 | -€357 | -€357 | -€357 | -€357 | -€364 | -€364 | -€364 | -€364 | -€364 | -€364 | -€364 | -€364 | -€364 | -€364 | -€364 | -€364 |
| Marketing | -€400 | -€400 | -€400 | -€400 | -€400 | -€400 | -€400 | -€400 | -€400 | -€400 | -€400 | -€400 | -€408 | -€408 | -€408 | -€408 | -€408 | -€408 | -€408 | -€408 | -€408 | -€408 | -€408 | -€408 | -€416 | -€416 | -€416 | -€416 | -€416 | -€416 | -€416 | -€416 | -€416 | -€416 | -€416 | -€416 |
| Other costs | -€700 | -€700 | -€700 | -€700 | -€700 | -€700 | -€700 | -€700 | -€700 | -€700 | -€700 | -€700 | -€714 | -€714 | -€714 | -€714 | -€714 | -€714 | -€714 | -€714 | -€714 | -€714 | -€714 | -€714 | -€728 | -€728 | -€728 | -€728 | -€728 | -€728 | -€728 | -€728 | -€728 | -€728 | -€728 | -€728 |
| Total fixed costs | -€13,150 | -€13,150 | -€13,150 | -€13,150 | -€13,150 | -€13,150 | -€13,150 | -€13,150 | -€13,150 | -€13,150 | -€13,150 | -€13,150 | -€13,413 | -€13,413 | -€13,413 | -€13,413 | -€13,413 | -€13,413 | -€13,413 | -€13,413 | -€13,413 | -€13,413 | -€13,413 | -€13,413 | -€13,681 | -€13,681 | -€13,681 | -€13,681 | -€13,681 | -€13,681 | -€13,681 | -€13,681 | -€13,681 | -€13,681 | -€13,681 | -€13,681 |
| EBITDA | -€1,930 | -€1,092 | -€231 | -€37 | €860 | €1,070 | €562 | -€698 | €1,720 | €2,697 | €4,467 | €7,841 | €2 | €1,004 | €2,033 | €2,265 | €3,338 | €3,589 | €2,981 | €1,475 | €4,365 | €5,534 | €7,650 | €11,684 | €2,358 | €3,556 | €4,787 | €5,064 | €6,346 | €6,646 | €5,920 | €4,120 | €7,575 | €8,973 | €11,502 | €16,326 |
| Depreciation | -€800 | -€800 | -€800 | -€800 | -€800 | -€800 | -€800 | -€800 | -€800 | -€800 | -€800 | -€800 | -€800 | -€800 | -€800 | -€800 | -€800 | -€800 | -€800 | -€800 | -€800 | -€800 | -€800 | -€800 | -€800 | -€800 | -€800 | -€800 | -€800 | -€800 | -€800 | -€800 | -€800 | -€800 | -€800 | -€800 |
| Operating income | -€2,730 | -€1,892 | -€1,031 | -€837 | €60 | €270 | -€238 | -€1,498 | €920 | €1,897 | €3,667 | €7,041 | -€798 | €204 | €1,233 | €1,465 | €2,538 | €2,789 | €2,181 | €675 | €3,565 | €4,734 | €6,850 | €10,884 | €1,558 | €2,756 | €3,987 | €4,264 | €5,546 | €5,846 | €5,120 | €3,320 | €6,775 | €8,173 | €10,702 | €15,526 |
| Interest | -€187 | -€185 | -€183 | -€182 | -€180 | -€178 | -€176 | -€175 | -€173 | -€171 | -€169 | -€168 | -€166 | -€164 | -€162 | -€161 | -€159 | -€157 | -€155 | -€153 | -€152 | -€150 | -€148 | -€146 | -€144 | -€143 | -€141 | -€139 | -€137 | -€135 | -€133 | -€132 | -€130 | -€128 | -€126 | -€124 |
| Pre-tax income | -€2,917 | -€2,077 | -€1,214 | -€1,019 | -€120 | €92 | -€415 | -€1,672 | €747 | €1,726 | €3,498 | €6,873 | -€964 | €40 | €1,071 | €1,304 | €2,379 | €2,632 | €2,026 | €522 | €3,414 | €4,585 | €6,702 | €10,738 | €1,413 | €2,613 | €3,846 | €4,125 | €5,409 | €5,711 | €4,986 | €3,188 | €6,645 | €8,045 | €10,576 | €15,401 |
| Tax | -€44 | -€44 | -€44 | -€44 | -€44 | -€44 | -€44 | -€44 | -€44 | -€44 | -€44 | -€44 | -€431 | -€431 | -€431 | -€431 | -€431 | -€431 | -€431 | -€431 | -€431 | -€431 | -€431 | -€431 | -€1,145 | -€1,145 | -€1,145 | -€1,145 | -€1,145 | -€1,145 | -€1,145 | -€1,145 | -€1,145 | -€1,145 | -€1,145 | -€1,145 |
| NET INCOME | -€2,960 | -€2,121 | -€1,258 | -€1,063 | -€164 | €48 | -€458 | -€1,716 | €703 | €1,682 | €3,454 | €6,830 | -€1,395 | -€391 | €640 | €874 | €1,948 | €2,201 | €1,595 | €91 | €2,983 | €4,154 | €6,272 | €10,307 | €268 | €1,468 | €2,701 | €2,980 | €4,264 | €4,566 | €3,841 | €2,043 | €5,500 | €6,900 | €9,431 | €14,256 |
| Month | Jan Y1 | Feb Y1 | Mar Y1 | Apr Y1 | May Y1 | Jun Y1 | Jul Y1 | Aug Y1 | Sep Y1 | Oct Y1 | Nov Y1 | Dec Y1 | Jan Y2 | Feb Y2 | Mar Y2 | Apr Y2 | May Y2 | Jun Y2 | Jul Y2 | Aug Y2 | Sep Y2 | Oct Y2 | Nov Y2 | Dec Y2 | Jan Y3 | Feb Y3 | Mar Y3 | Apr Y3 | May Y3 | Jun Y3 | Jul Y3 | Aug Y3 | Sep Y3 | Oct Y3 | Nov Y3 | Dec Y3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opening cash for the month | €26,000 | €31,175 | €29,862 | €29,426 | €28,702 | €29,383 | €29,778 | €29,144 | €26,709 | €29,349 | €31,926 | €36,845 | €46,299 | €39,991 | €40,892 | €42,842 | €43,922 | €47,208 | €50,151 | €51,865 | €51,424 | €57,052 | €62,604 | €70,957 | €84,731 | €79,707 | €83,302 | €88,151 | €87,420 | €93,866 | €99,903 | €104,470 | €106,460 | €115,706 | €124,862 | €137,366 |
| Customer receipts (incl. VAT) | €19,729 | €21,202 | €22,716 | €23,057 | €24,634 | €25,004 | €24,110 | €21,896 | €26,146 | €27,865 | €30,977 | €36,909 | €23,588 | €25,350 | €27,160 | €27,567 | €29,453 | €29,895 | €28,826 | €26,179 | €31,261 | €33,316 | €37,036 | €44,129 | €28,202 | €30,309 | €32,473 | €32,960 | €35,215 | €35,743 | €34,465 | €31,300 | €37,376 | €39,833 | €44,281 | €52,762 |
| Total cash in | €19,729 | €21,202 | €22,716 | €23,057 | €24,634 | €25,004 | €24,110 | €21,896 | €26,146 | €27,865 | €30,977 | €36,909 | €23,588 | €25,350 | €27,160 | €27,567 | €29,453 | €29,895 | €28,826 | €26,179 | €31,261 | €33,316 | €37,036 | €44,129 | €28,202 | €30,309 | €32,473 | €32,960 | €35,215 | €35,743 | €34,465 | €31,300 | €37,376 | €39,833 | €44,281 | €52,762 |
| Material suppliers (incl. VAT, 30 days) | — | -€7,497 | -€8,057 | -€8,632 | -€8,762 | -€9,361 | -€9,501 | -€9,162 | -€8,320 | -€9,935 | -€10,589 | -€11,771 | -€14,026 | -€8,963 | -€9,633 | -€10,321 | -€10,475 | -€11,192 | -€11,360 | -€10,954 | -€9,948 | -€11,879 | -€12,660 | -€14,074 | -€16,769 | -€10,717 | -€11,517 | -€12,340 | -€12,525 | -€13,382 | -€13,582 | -€13,097 | -€11,894 | -€14,203 | -€15,137 | -€16,827 |
| Other costs (incl. VAT) and insurance | -€4,226 | -€4,256 | -€4,286 | -€4,293 | -€4,324 | -€4,332 | -€4,314 | -€4,269 | -€4,354 | -€4,389 | -€4,451 | -€4,570 | -€4,380 | -€4,415 | -€4,451 | -€4,459 | -€4,497 | -€4,506 | -€4,485 | -€4,432 | -€4,533 | -€4,574 | -€4,649 | -€4,791 | -€4,550 | -€4,592 | -€4,636 | -€4,645 | -€4,691 | -€4,701 | -€4,676 | -€4,612 | -€4,734 | -€4,783 | -€4,872 | -€5,042 |
| Salaries and social charges | -€9,500 | -€9,500 | -€9,500 | -€9,500 | -€9,500 | -€9,500 | -€9,500 | -€9,500 | -€9,500 | -€9,500 | -€9,500 | -€9,500 | -€9,690 | -€9,690 | -€9,690 | -€9,690 | -€9,690 | -€9,690 | -€9,690 | -€9,690 | -€9,690 | -€9,690 | -€9,690 | -€9,690 | -€9,884 | -€9,884 | -€9,884 | -€9,884 | -€9,884 | -€9,884 | -€9,884 | -€9,884 | -€9,884 | -€9,884 | -€9,884 | -€9,884 |
| Loan (principal + interest) | -€827 | -€827 | -€827 | -€827 | -€827 | -€827 | -€827 | -€827 | -€827 | -€827 | -€827 | -€827 | -€827 | -€827 | -€827 | -€827 | -€827 | -€827 | -€827 | -€827 | -€827 | -€827 | -€827 | -€827 | -€827 | -€827 | -€827 | -€827 | -€827 | -€827 | -€827 | -€827 | -€827 | -€827 | -€827 | -€827 |
| VAT paid (−) or refunded (+) | — | -€436 | -€482 | -€529 | -€540 | -€589 | -€601 | -€573 | -€503 | -€636 | -€690 | -€787 | -€973 | -€553 | -€608 | -€664 | -€677 | -€736 | -€750 | -€717 | -€634 | -€793 | -€857 | -€973 | -€1,195 | -€693 | -€759 | -€827 | -€842 | -€913 | -€929 | -€889 | -€790 | -€980 | -€1,057 | -€1,196 |
| Taxes | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | -€525 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | -€5,167 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total cash out | -€14,554 | -€22,515 | -€23,152 | -€23,781 | -€23,953 | -€24,609 | -€24,743 | -€24,331 | -€23,506 | -€25,288 | -€26,057 | -€27,456 | -€29,896 | -€24,449 | -€25,210 | -€26,487 | -€26,167 | -€26,952 | -€27,112 | -€26,620 | -€25,632 | -€27,764 | -€28,683 | -€30,355 | -€33,226 | -€26,714 | -€27,624 | -€33,690 | -€28,769 | -€29,707 | -€29,898 | -€29,309 | -€28,129 | -€30,677 | -€31,777 | -€33,776 |
| Net cash flow | €5,175 | -€1,313 | -€436 | -€724 | €681 | €395 | -€633 | -€2,436 | €2,640 | €2,577 | €4,919 | €9,454 | -€6,308 | €901 | €1,950 | €1,080 | €3,286 | €2,943 | €1,714 | -€441 | €5,628 | €5,552 | €8,353 | €13,774 | -€5,024 | €3,595 | €4,849 | -€731 | €6,446 | €6,036 | €4,567 | €1,990 | €9,246 | €9,156 | €12,504 | €18,986 |
| Closing cash | €31,175 | €29,862 | €29,426 | €28,702 | €29,383 | €29,778 | €29,144 | €26,709 | €29,349 | €31,926 | €36,845 | €46,299 | €39,991 | €40,892 | €42,842 | €43,922 | €47,208 | €50,151 | €51,865 | €51,424 | €57,052 | €62,604 | €70,957 | €84,731 | €79,707 | €83,302 | €88,151 | €87,420 | €93,866 | €99,903 | €104,470 | €106,460 | €115,706 | €124,862 | €137,366 | €156,352 |
| Outstanding principal | €69,359 | €68,717 | €68,073 | €67,427 | €66,779 | €66,130 | €65,479 | €64,826 | €64,171 | €63,515 | €62,857 | €62,197 | €61,535 | €60,872 | €60,207 | €59,540 | €58,871 | €58,201 | €57,529 | €56,855 | €56,179 | €55,501 | €54,822 | €54,140 | €53,457 | €52,773 | €52,086 | €51,397 | €50,707 | €50,015 | €49,321 | €48,625 | €47,927 | €47,227 | €46,526 | €45,822 |
✓ Balance sheet balances every year. Balance-sheet cash equals the cash-flow plan and the change in equity equals net income. Amounts rounded to the euro; opening cash (funding − fixed assets − opening stock): €26,000.
| Item | Opening | End Y1 | End Y2 | End Y3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASSETS | ||||
| Fixed assets (gross) | €85,000 | €85,000 | €85,000 | €85,000 |
| Accumulated depreciation | — | -€9,600 | -€19,200 | -€28,800 |
| Net fixed assets | €85,000 | €75,400 | €65,800 | €56,200 |
| Stock | €4,000 | €4,000 | €4,000 | €4,000 |
| Cash | €26,000 | €46,299 | €84,731 | €156,352 |
| TOTAL ASSETS | €115,000 | €125,699 | €154,531 | €216,552 |
| EQUITY AND LIABILITIES | ||||
| Share capital (contributions) | €40,000 | €40,000 | €40,000 | €40,000 |
| Investment grants | €5,000 | €5,000 | €5,000 | €5,000 |
| Retained earnings brought forward | — | — | €2,978 | €32,259 |
| Profit or loss for the year | — | €2,978 | €29,281 | €58,220 |
| Equity | €45,000 | €47,978 | €77,259 | €135,479 |
| Bank loans | €70,000 | €62,197 | €54,140 | €45,822 |
| Trade payables | — | €14,026 | €16,769 | €20,050 |
| VAT payable | — | €973 | €1,195 | €1,462 |
| Corporation tax payable | — | €526 | €5,167 | €13,740 |
| TOTAL EQUITY AND LIABILITIES | €115,000 | €125,699 | €154,531 | €216,552 |
| Check: assets − liabilities | ✓ €0 | ✓ €0 | ✓ €0 | ✓ €0 |
| Item | Amount (€) | % of total | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| NEEDS | |||
| Fixed assets | €85,000 | ||
| Opening stock | €4,000 | ||
| Start-up working capital | €6,000 | ||
| Opening cash | €12,000 | ||
| TOTAL NEEDS | €107,000 | 100% | Total start-up needs |
| RESOURCES | |||
| Equity contribution | €40,000 | ||
| Bank loan | €70,000 | ||
| Grants | €5,000 | ||
| Other contributions | €0 | ||
| TOTAL RESOURCES | €115,000 | 100% | Total resources raised |
| GAP (Resources − Needs) | €8,000 | 7.5% | Funding surplus |
| Loan schedule | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total repayments | €9,929 | €9,929 | €9,929 |
| of which interest | €2,126 | €1,873 | €1,611 |
| of which principal | €7,803 | €8,056 | €8,318 |
| Outstanding principal | €62,197 | €54,140 | €45,822 |
📝 Analysis & comments
Yok-Kod automatic analysis
📊 OVERALL SUMMARY
Over 3 years, Smith Bakery (example) forecasts cumulative revenue of €1,045,422, for cumulative net income of €90,479.
💡 STRENGTHS
✓ Good EBITDA margin in year 3 (20.2%), a sign of a well-controlled cost structure.
✓ Net profitability in year 3 (14.1%), above the usual bank threshold of 5%.
✓ Solid repayment capacity (DSCR = 8.38), above the bank threshold of 1.2.
✓ Debt under control (ratio = 0.34), balanced financial structure.
✓ Reasonable working capital (-16 days of revenue), smooth operating cycle.
✓ Cash always positive over the period.
⚠️ POINTS TO WATCH
ℹ️ Break-even reached in month 6.
🏦 RECOMMENDATIONS FOR THE BANK
The file shows a balanced profile. The DSCR and debt ratios meet the usual bank criteria.